Serial PC hardware market watchers and soothsayers Canalys has dumped its latest set of PC hardware sales data. And the raw numbers are good, with total PC sales up by nearly 10% for the first quarter of a 2025 compared to the same period last year. But with Trump's China tariffs escalating by the minute, and currently clocking in at 145%, it's anyone's guess where PC sales go from here.
Meanwhile, Canalys says PC makers have already taken major steps to move production out of China, citing HP's expectation that it will be making 90% of its PCs outside of China by the end of 2025.
To be more precise about those PC sales figures, Canalys says, "total shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations grew 9.4% to 62.7 million units in Q1 2025.
To break that down a bit, "notebook (including mobile workstations) shipments hit 49.4 million units, up 10% compared to a year ago. Shipments of desktops (including desktop workstations) rose 8% to 13.3 million units."
Of course, you could argue this uptick in PC sales isn't actually healthy. Indeed, Canalys implies just that, saying, "Q1 volumes were boosted by OEMs ramping up shipments to the US in anticipation of the first round of the Trump administration’s tariff announcements."
The obvious implication being, there's a probable dip to come. "Subsequent quarters this year are likely to see a slowdown as inventory levels normalize and customers face higher prices," Canalys reckons.
As for the solution, moving production out of China appears to be the narrative: "Major OEMs already began supply chain diversification during Trump’s first term and are expected to continue moving away from China towards Vietnam, Thailand, and India, despite these countries also facing the imposition of tariffs."
What's more, Canalys points out that CEO Enrique Lores has stated that 90% of HP's products sold in the US would be made outside of China by the end of this year. It's notable that it's 90% of product sold in the US, not 90% of overall HP product. In other words, HP products for other markets are likely to have higher Chinese content.
Taking this all in the round, it's hard to know what conclusions to draw. PC sales are doing well of late, but tariffs loom. Then again, it seems like large sectors of the industry are already well placed to avoid China tariffs, at least in part.
Ultimately, however, our own Andy Chalk summed the situation up well when he said, "Whether you're a Wall Street investor or just someone trying to upgrade their gaming PC, all you're left with today is more uncertainty and instability." It's hard to imagine how that doesn't push up prices, at least a little bit.
