In 2023, research suggested that the decline in global PC shipments was so bad that it was "unparalleled in the industry's recorded history." Fast forward two years, and things are far rosier, with one analyst stating that in the past three months, shipments were up 9.4% compared to 2024. Now, another market research firm has confirmed the good news, claiming that global shipments improved by 8.1% overall, with some vendors improving by as much as 17%.
That's according to Counterpoint Research, in a brief report posted last week. Leading the pack is Lenovo, with the aforemented 17% rise in shipments year-on-year, closely followed by Apple and Asus (15% and 14%, respectively).
HP did better too, rising by 10%, but not every vendor enjoyed better figures. Dell was down by 1% and 'others' (i.e. the rest of the major PC vendors) dropped by 8%. Counterpoint points to a certain operating system as being partly responsible for the uptick in PC shipments.
"The Windows 10 sunset has effectively acted as an industry-wide refresh timer, prompting both enterprises and consumers to replace aging systems ahead of the October deadline. With nearly 40% of the current PC installed base still on Windows 10, this replacement cycle is poised to be a major catalyst for PC market growth over the next few years."
It also mentions that "strategic inventory adjustments linked to evolving US import tariff policies" are responsible, too. Rough translation: People and businesses have been buying new PCs before tariffs make them even more expensive.
All of this does raise a simple question: Why aren't the figures higher if so many PCs are still using Windows 10? Well, Windows 10 has only just reached end of life, and security updates will continue (paid for or otherwise) for at least another year, so there isn't quite as large an impetus for swapping PCs as one might imagine.
Minsoo Kang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, notes that there's another reason for the relatively small shipment increase: "While the current growth is primarily driven by OS migration, the industry is poised for an even more profound transformation with the rise of the AI PC. However, this next wave of growth has not yet fully materialized in the Q3 2025 numbers."
What Kang is referring to is the fact that, so far, the PC market hasn't exactly been enamoured by the whole AI PC ecosystem. With useful AI still mostly handled via the cloud, upgrading an array of PCs to those that sport AI-capable CPUs just hasn't been worth considering.
It's worth noting that AI PCs, at the moment, are nearly all laptops, as desktop PCs don't fall under Microsoft's definition of an AI PC. That's because they either have a CPU with a rubbish NPU (e.g. Intel's Core Ultra 200S range) or they use the GPU for AI, which is something Windows can't handle right now.
However, the next generation of AI PCs, powered by Intel's Panther Lake and Nova Lake chips, as well as (presumably) AMD's Zen 6 processors, should be far more tempting. Counterpoint's associate director, David Naranjo, thinks it's less about what PCs can do now but what they have the potential to do.
"The PC market’s rebound in 2025 is not just about replacing outdated systems, it is about preparing for what is next," says Naranjo. "Many enterprises are choosing AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets, even if they do not yet need those capabilities immediately. The next refresh cycle will be defined by intelligence at the edge, not just performance improvements."
I got to see Panther Lake perform AI tasks in the flesh, at Intel's Technology Tour in Arizona, a few weeks ago, and I came away genuinely impressed by what the little chip is capable of doing. Be it general compute, graphics, or local-memory AI workloads, Panther Lake is on track to be one of Intel's best CPUs for many years. It'll almost certainly be quite pricey, though.
A cynical person might feel that the death of Windows 10 had little to do with Microsoft not wanting to carry on supporting the operating system (underneath its GUI, Win10 isn't vastly different to Win11). Instead, it was an agreement with hardware and PC vendors, who have been struggling with shipments for years, to kick-start sales again.
Whether that's true or not, it would seem that the PC industry as a whole is hoping that Windows 10's exit and the next generation of processors from AMD and Intel will do wonders for shipment figures, revenues, and ultimately, profits. If that doesn't happen, well, we'll just be back to moaning about the decline of the humble PC.
Same as it ever was, I guess.
1. Best gaming laptop: Razer Blade 16
2. Best gaming PC: HP Omen 35L
3. Best handheld gaming PC: Lenovo Legion Go S SteamOS ed.
4. Best mini PC: Minisforum AtomMan G7 PT
5. Best VR headset: Meta Quest 3
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