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Rocket League loot box odds revealed

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After a year overflowing (opens in new tab) with loot box and pay-to-win controversies, loot boxes are now steadily being phased out, with many studios adopting battle pass-style (opens in new tab) business models, outright removing loot boxes (opens in new tab) from their games, or disclosing the odds of their loot boxes to maintain transparency. Rocket League developer Psyonix joined the latter group earlier today: the math behind Rocket League's loot crates is now out in the wild thanks to a recent blog post (opens in new tab). Here's how they break down:  

  •  Rare item: 55 percent 
  •  Very Rare item: 28 percent 
  •  Import item: 12 percent 
  •  Exotic item: 4 percent 
  •  Black Market item: 1 percent 
  •  Painted version of item: 25 percent chance  
  •  Certified version if item: 25 percent chance  

Psyonix also explained how Rocket League's crate system determines rewards. Simply put, when you open a crate, the game rolls for item rarity, then for an item within that rarity (items of the same rarity are equally weighted), and finally for Painted or Certified attributes. 

The studio says these odds haven't changed since loot crates were added in September 2016, and that "if we do make any changes to drop rates, we'll be sure to post the new numbers here on the blog."

Austin Wood
Austin Wood

Austin freelanced for PC Gamer, Eurogamer, IGN, Sports Illustrated, and more while finishing his journalism degree, and has been a full-time writer at PC Gamer's sister publication GamesRadar+ since 2019. They've yet to realize that his position as a staff writer is just a cover-up for his career-spanning Destiny column, and he's kept the ruse going with a focus on news, the occasional feature, and as much Genshin Impact as he can get away with.