Intel has been talking numbers this week with the announcement of some reasonably positive financials for the final quarter of 2024 (you can read the full transcript here). With that comes the usual chat around product and official confirmation that the Panther Lake mobile CPU is still due in the second half of 2024 using Intel's all-important new 18A silicon node.
But Intel said 18A wouldn't necessarily win all future CPU designs and also revealed how slowly the company's transition to advanced silicon has been. In 2024, just over 5% of Intel's internal chip manufacturing was on its latest EUV-based nodes.
"Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we will strengthen our client road map with the launch of Panther Lake, our lead product on Intel 18A in the second half of 2025," Intel's new interim co-CEO Michelle Holthaus said on the latest earnings calls with the usual money men and spreadsheet soothsayers.
However, Holthaus also implied that Panther Lake using Intel's new 18A node doesn't automatically mean that all of the company's future CPUs will be coming back in house. For its next-gen desktop CPU Nova Lake, it seems Intel is planning to split production between its own 18A silicon and likely a TSMC node, perhaps N2.
"We look at each generation of products based on what's the right product, what's the right process, what's the right market window and what allows our customers to win. So, for Panther Lake, that was 18A," Holthaus explains.
"Then as you look forward, to our next-generation product for client after that, Nova Lake will actually have die both inside and outside [Intel Foundry] for that process. So, you'll actually see compute tiles inside and outside," she said.
During the call, Holthaus made generally positive noises about the 18A node which is critical to Intel's future, not only for its own chips but also as a foundry service offering to customers in competition to Taiwanese megafoundry TSMC. But the fact that Intel doesn't plan to make Nova Lake exclusively on 18A is, perhaps, revealing.
It is not, however, entirely surprising. Despite plans to begin selling Panther Lake chips built on 18A later this year, by Intel's own admission it has barely begun scaling up production of chips on its latest Intel 4 and Intel 3 nodes.
"EUV wafer revenue grew from 1% of total revenue in 2023 to greater than 5% in 2024," revealed Intel's CFO David Zinsner. Intel 4 is company's first commercially available node to use EUV or extreme ultraviolet lithography and is used for the Meteor Lake family of Laptop CPUs.
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However, the follow up to Meteor Lake, Lunar Lake, somewhat surprisingly reverted to TSMC for production, as did the Arrow Lake desktop family including the Intel Core Ultra 9 285K.
In other words, Intel is planning on cranking out 18A chips shortly despite having barely begun the transition to Intel 4 (or Intel 3, which is a derivation of Intel 4). Given that previous CES, Pat Gelsinger, admitted to betting the company on 18A it's needed to keep the new node on track and get product actually built on it whatever state the manufacturing is in with the Intel 4/3 nodes.
With all that in mind, it remains a very mixed picture at Intel. Even if the company does manage to release some Panther Lake chips on 18A later this year, questions will remain about the viability of its production technology.
Intel doesn't seem to have been able to ramp Intel 4 and Intel 3, despite releasing Meteor Lake well over a year ago. So, who knows what will happen with 18A.
