Wondering why your luck with Overwatch drops is so bad? A Redditor by the name of Ourobouros felt that he was getting the short end of the stick, so he did the natural thing: He sat through videos that collected up more than 1000 loot box openings, tallied up what came out, and then worked out the drop rate for Common, Rare, Epic, and Legendary items. The results will amaze you!
No, actually, they won't, because it's pretty much exactly what you'd expect: Common items are, well, common, making up 59 percent of dropped items (a 97 percent drop rate) while Legendaries, at two percent of the total (nine percent drop rate) are exceptionally rare. (Rares, on the other hand, are just uncommon.) The difference in numbers, Ourobouros explained in a follow-up, is because the total percentage is based on a per-item count, but each loot box drops four items.
“The drop rate is the chance of getting an item of that rarity from the box,” he wrote. “One item is guaranteed to be rare or better. So there's a chance that you could get three commons and one epic, for example.”
I'm not sure how practically helpful this is, because it's not as though you can use the knowledge you've gained to improve your odds of scoring sweet loot. But it is interesting, and the numbers don't seem unreasonable to me. Just for kicks, I've dropped a line to Blizzard to see if these results are close to the real thing—I'll let you know what I hear.